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Transport fuel demand responses to fuel price and income projections: Comparison of integrated assessment models

机译：运输燃料需求对燃料价格和收入预测的反应：综合评估模型的比较

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摘要

Income and fuel price pathways are key determinants in projections of the energy system in integrated assessment models. In recent years, more details have been added to the transport sector representation in these models. To better understand the model dynamics, this manuscript analyses transport fuel demand elasticities to projected income and fuel price levels. Fuel price shocks were simulated under various scenario assumptions to isolate price effects on energy demand and create a transparent environment to compare fuel demand response. Interestingly, the models show very comparable oil price elasticity values for the projected first 10–20 years that are also close to the range described in the empirical literature. When looking at the very long term (30–40 years), demand elasticity values widely vary between models, between 0.4 and −1.9, showing either continuous demand or increased demand responses over time. The latter can be the result of long response time to fuel price shocks, availability of new technologies, and feedback effects on fuel prices. The projected transport service demand is more responsive to changes in income than fuel price pathways, corresponding with the literature. Calculating the models' inherent elasticities proved to be a suitable method to evaluate model behaviour and its application is also recommended for other models as well as other sectors represented in integrated assessment models
机译：收入和燃料价格路径是综合评估模型中能源系统预测的关键决定因素。近年来，在这些模型中，运输部门的代表增加了更多细节。为了更好地理解模型动力学，该手稿将运输燃料需求弹性分析为预计收入和燃料价格水平。在各种情景假设下模拟了燃油价格冲击，以隔离价格对能源需求的影响，并创建透明的环境来比较燃油需求响应。有趣的是，这些模型显示了预计的前10–20年的非常可比的油价弹性值，也接近经验文献中描述的范围。从长期（30-40年）来看，模型之间的需求弹性值差异很大，在0.4到-1.9之间，表明随着时间的推移持续需求或需求响应增加。后者可能是由于对燃油价格冲击的响应时间长，新技术的可用性以及对燃油价格的反馈影响的结果。相对于文献，与燃料价格路径相比，预计的运输服务需求对收入的变化更敏感。计算模型的固有弹性被证明是评估模型行为的合适方法，并且还建议将其应用到其他模型以及集成评估模型中代表的其他部门

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